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US Prez Donald Trump and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi have had a very cordial and a symbiotic relationship in the past and one would expect this to only become stronger and better in Trump’s second term as the POTUS. Some of his policies, such as a stringent immigration call and trade issues will be a focus area of this relationship. However, analysts feel with Modi 3.0 and India’s rising status in the global south, Trump may be more willing to revisit his non-populist policies
Earlier this week, Donald Trump said he will meet PM Modi during the latter’s visit to the US. (Credit: Getty Images)
New Delhi: Over four billion people across the world were glued to their TV sets (at whatever time zone) to view the outcome of the results of the US elections 2024. And the Elections this time around have been nothing short of a potboiler, a masala script that would find appeal with any Asian filmmaker. There was a bit of everything – drama, histrionics, violence, humour, pathos, mystery, the list is exhaustive. But not many were expecting for this anti-climax, definitely not the Democrats, who were hoping for a closer finish for their nominee – vice president Kamala Harris. That was not to be, Donald Trump is back in the seat of power, considered as the pinnacle, being declared as the 47th President of the United States of America.
While women around the world are unhappy that the second largest democracy still remains elusive to the fairer sex, Indians may not be extremely diffident about the return of Trump. The camaraderie that he shares with his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, will be a prime driver for this confidence that our country has on the idealism and the politics of Trump sarkaar. The verdict couldn’t have come at a better time when India is caught in the crosshairs with Canada (as well as the Five Eyes) with respect to the Khalistani issue. A fact that has been reinforced by Republican Hindu Coalition founder Shalabh Kumar, who made headlines when he said that “Trump will crackdown on Khalistani separatists if re-elected as US President and the fact that Trudeau will have no choice but to listen.”
Apart from their dual effort on many fronts, Trump’s re-election as the President, could actually be good news on multiple sectors – from trade to tariff to terrorism and national security to even human rights.
Advantage India!
Business high: What this Donald Trump victory could mean for the Indian markets is still being studied but analysts firmly believe that his pro-corporate tax stance and a reduced regulatory environment will resonate with the Indian markets. While a Kamala Harris presidency would have aligned more with the current not so favourable Biden policies, with some challenges to foreign relations.
A Harris sweep may have started a phase of short-term selling, but one doubts it would have had a massive impact on the Indian stock markets. A report released by JM Financial in the month of August had spoken of sector-specific impact in India. They had highlighted that “banks and NBFCs might face a challenging interest rate environment under Republicans, while NBFCs could benefit from RBI rate cuts expected under Democrats.”
Industrial growth: On the other hand, auto ancillaries, commodities, chemicals, and textile industries are bound to see rapid gains if the US-China tariffs rise.
As per the same report, Trump’s focus on indigenous goods under the ‘Make in America’ scheme could also result in elevating Indian industrial players with US-based parent companies. There is a sense of relief to traders who feel that the Trump administration is better placed to bring about strong bilateral trade agreements. Out of Harris and Trump, many feel, the latter would have pursued a favorable bilateral deal with India, reducing tariffs on key exports like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and IT services.
The energy sector in India is also expecting a huge boost because during Trump’s earlier term the US has significantly increased energy exports to India, this included oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). With his administration back in the saddle, it is believed that Trump may aim to bolster this energy partnership further. The boost will potentially reduce costs while opening a larger market for US energy products in India.
Talk about a win-win situation!
Expansive defence partnership: Apart from a big energy push, the Trump administration is said to have actively pursued defense and security partnerships with India as well. One may expect this cooperation to expand, eventually leading to more defense technology transfers, joint production, and acquisitions.
Tech-boost: Trump’s return may also symbolise a closer cooperation between India and the US in emerging sectors under technology, especially in the AI, cybersecurity, and semiconductors space which could be a huge advantage to India’s tech sector and support supply chain resilience. Given that Trump’s focus has always been on reducing digital trade barriers, there could be new opportunities for collaboration in the digital economy. This, in turn, may include easing restrictions on data flows or digital services, benefiting India’s IT and software services exports and opening new avenues for joint development in fintech, health tech, and e-commerce.
Trumped or stumped: Study abroad dreams
The one big worry for India and students who had selected the US as a preferred study abroad destination is Trump’s stringent view on immigration policies. Coming into the Elections, Trump had been very vocal about how he would stick to his basic tenets regarding keeping the US comparatively immigrants free. However, in some of his campaigns where he was wooing Indian diaspora and other Hispanic voters, Trump’s policy outlook seemed more sombre than aggressive.
In his first term, the issuance of H-1B visas had become a controversial focus area. His tightened visa rules had impacted the visa denial rates which increased from 6 per cent in 2015 to 24 per cent in 2018. This is something that hurt the student community who wanted to pursue education in the US. However, study abroad counsellors are hopeful that the Trump administration in 2024 would like to review this situation going forward. The one argument that they give for this role reversal is that Trump had spoken vividly of keeping smart people who studied in American schools in the STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) subjects. These play a key role in sparking new ideas and boosting the economy, he had maintained.
A graduate of science and economics, Donald Trump understands that technology and engineering companies need skilled workers and he may put in place rules to help graduates in these areas. This could mean giving them more time to work after they finish school or making it easier for them to get green cards.
China and Canada: Trump’s support is crucial
With Trump’s previous stance on building strong alliances in the Indo-Pacific to counter the increasing influence of China, a Trump administration is bound to actively support India’s role as a regional leader in this part of the world. Enhanced cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region is also another area that could soon become a reality.
His stand on counterterrorism also aligns with that of India and that would go a long way in easing the political pressure that has made headlines in the past few weeks within the country. Trump’s office has not minced their words when they said his administration would crackdown on Khalistanis and that Trudeau would just have to listen. India will be hopeful that this change of government in the US would give some time for the country to rethink their position on the Canada-Khalistan issue.
In other foreign policy matters too, including taking the QUAD to the next level, seems like a possibility now. It was under the Trump admin that Quad had been elevated to a ministerial level in the first place. He had ensured that foundational agreements for force interoperability was signed and India-US 2+2 ministerial dialogue was launched.
So, Trump sarkaar is most welcome for India as we could consolidate, and even leverage to a certain extent, the global south position that we have carved out for the nation. Even globally, Trump as the 47th President of the US, may be a harbinger of good news. Knowing Trump, one doesn’t have to wait that long to understand which way does the wind blow!
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