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Pleased with the Lok Sabha results in which it won 30 out of 48 total seats, the Opposition MVA seems to be relying on the ‘imagined anger’ against the Mahayuti government and is yet to come up with any compelling narrative against them. This thinking proved fatal in the recent Haryana assembly elections for Congress
The BJP’s core group meeting on Lok Sabha elections, spanning six hours, focused on the upcoming second list of approximately 150 seats, to be finalised on March 10.
New Delhi: The countdown for the much anticipated face-off in Maharashtra between the Mahayuti government comprising BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) of Congress-NCP (Sharad Pawar)-Shiv Sena (UBT) has finally begun. The single phase polling for the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly will take place on November 20, followed by counting three days later. As a result, the stage is set to avenge the treacheries and deception of the last five years which began with parting of ways between alliance partners BJP and Uddhav Thackeray (then leading undivided Shiv Sena) soon after the 2019 elections. Shiv Sena wanted to share the chief minister’s position while BJP refused. However, the BJP, largest party in the House with 105 MLAs was left red faced when Thackeray joined hands with rival Congress and NCP to form the government.
While one could accept parting of ways between the BJP and Shiv Sena, nobody had anticipated the coming together of the ‘secular’ Congress and the ‘rightist’ Shiv Sena whose proud-hindu-sainiks took great pride in bringing down the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya. For BJP, Thackeray not only betrayed them but also the mandate given by the people which was anti-Congress. And after November 28, 2019, the day Thackeray took oath as the chief minister of Maharashtra before the packed house at Shivaji Park, the politics became personal for many key players in the state. In the years that followed, BJP not only avenged its betrayal by Uddhav by engineering split in Shiv Sena but also rubbed salt on his wounds by rewarding the splitter Eknath Shinde with chief ministership. Later, Sharad Pawar, the chief architect of MVA also faced music when his nephew Ajit Pawar broke away from the NCP and joined the Mahayuti government. Today, Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar are the president of the original Shiv Sena and NCP along with its symbol. Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray blame BJP for their woes and are working to rebuild their parties.
Crucial test for many key state leaders
The upcoming assembly elections will be a litmus test for all the top leaders in Maharashtra politics – Sharad Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray, Eknath Shinde, Ajit Pawar, Devendra Fadnavis and Nana Patole, the chief of Maharashtra Congress. While the leaders of the two factions of Shiv Sena and NCP would like to put their house in order and emerge key players in their respective alliance, the Congress and BJP would be eyeing the lead role in MVA and Mahayuti to steer their camps to victory. Devendra Fadnavis, the Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra could be shifted out of state politics in case BJP falters for he is not only the BJP face in the state but also calling the shots. For Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar, winning the elections with respectable seats would be a totally different ball game than engineering the split and becoming part of the government. Meanwhile, Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray would want to teach the ‘rebels’ lesson in realpolitik. Ajit Pawar is already under immense pressure after the dismal Lok Sabha performance of the Mahayuti. His party is being accused of weighing down the alliance which could win only 17 Lok Sabha seats compared to 30 by the MVA. A disastrous assembly performance could be the end of the road for him. However, if Mahayuti forms the government again, it will try to finish off the rival factions by luring their MLAs and leaders. Conversely, if MVA wins, Sharad Pawar and Thackeray will make life difficult for the people loyal to Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde.
When MVA turned tables in LS elections
The MVA did much better than Mahayuti in the recent Lok Sabha elections. Congress won 13 seats followed by nine by Uddhav Thackeray and eight by Sharad Pawar. In comparison, BJP won nine seats, Ekanth Shinde’s faction seven seats and Ajit Pawar’s NCP just one. However, compared to Lok Sabha elections, the assembly elections pose a more crucial test. As a result, MVA cannot sit idle and hope to win assembly elections on the premises that people are angry with the BJP as proved by Lok Sabha results. While every election is different, in the case of assembly elections, many local factors influence election results.
Opposition needs a compelling narrative
The MVA seems to be relying on the ‘imagined anger’ against the Mahayuti government and is yet to come up with any compelling narrative against them. This attitude proved fatal for Congress in the recent Haryana assembly elections. In the absence of the “threat to constitution and reservation” narrative during the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress campaign fell-off in Haryana despite BJP battling 10 years of anti-incumbency. What new MVA can offer in Maharashtra? We don’t know yet.
Meanwhile, BJP would be looking to replicate its Haryana formula (anti-Jat polarisation) in Maharashtra by polarising the OBCs who constitute 51 per cent population of the state. The welfare schemes like Ladki Bahin Yojana giving Rs 1500 monthly allowance to poor women have also found great traction. Besides, better election management has always been BJP’s forte.
(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone. The opinions and facts in this article do not represent the stand of News9.)
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