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With 62 seats at stake, good performance in the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra is crucial for any party to win the state. In the past five assembly elections, the winner of Vidarbha has gone on to secure the state elections
Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi (Photo: TV9 Network)
New Delhi: Congress General Secretary Rahul Gandhi will kickstart his campaign for Maharashtra assembly elections from Nagpur on Wednesday. After attending a ‘Conference on Constitution’ in the city, Gandhi will travel to Mumbai and attend the Maha Vikas Aghadi’s (MVA) election manifesto launch event. Like everything with Gandhi’s and their politics, Rahul Gandhi’s first public event in Nagpur marks a crucial symbolism. Nagpur is not only the headquarters of the RSS, an ideological fountainhead for BJP, but this is also the place where the Father of Indian Constitution Dr BR Ambedkar, a Dalit Hindu, converted to Buddhism citing caste oppression and untouchability within Hinduism as the reason. Considering the associated history, Nagpur looks like a perfect place for Gandhi to launch his popular diatribe against the BJP in relation with the ‘threat to constitution’ and ‘importance of caste census’. Or is there something more to the place beyond symbolism?
Nagpur lies in the politically crucial Vidarbha region of Maharashtra which elects 62 out of 288 total legislators for the state assembly. Almost 22 per cent of the MLAs. However, more importantly for the Congress, of the total 72 seats on which Congress and BJP are in direct a fight across the state, 36 lie in the Vidarbha region – across the Nagpur and Amravati division. Interestingly, of all the six regions of Maharashtra – Western Maharashtra (70), Vidarbha (62), Marathwada (46), Thane-Konkan (39), Mumbai (36) and North Maharashtra (35) – BJP is contesting the most 47 seats in the cotton belt of Vidarbha, and if Congress is able to pip the saffron party here, it will push the doors wide open for the MVA to return back to power.
Initially, Vidarbha has been a Congress stronghold, however, the party lost its hold with time to the BJP. The two factions of NCP and Shiv Sena have limited influence in the area. While BJP’s Nitin Gadkari and Devendra Fadnavis belong to the region (Nagpur), MPCC Chief Nana Patole and Leader of the Opposition (LoP) in State Assembly Vijay Wadettiwar also come from Vidarbha.
Congress and BJP in Vidarbha
Riding strong Modi-wave in the 2014 assembly elections, the BJP swept the region with 44 seats while Congress was reduced to just 10 seats from 24 in 2009. In the 2019 assembly elections, BJP’s tally fell to 29 seats but it was much better than 15 of the Congress. However, in the 2019 elections, the numbers for BJP had not gone down in Vidarbha alone. Owing to distress in agricultural sector, factionalism with in the party and continued farmer suicides, BJP’s overall tally in the state fell from 122 seats in 2014 to 105 seats. The NCP and Shiv Sena do not have much stake in the region and is evident by the ticket distribution between the allies in the two alliances.
Meanwhile, Congress’s performance in the Lok Sabha elections, where it won four of the 10 seats at stake, has given hope to the MVA. As an alliance, while BJP and allies won three seats with 42 per cent votes, the Congress and allies won seven seats with 45 per cent votes.
Economics of Vidarbha
Hot spot of farmers suicide, Vidarbha accounts for almost 50 per cent of the total farmers suicide in the state and is one of the most underdeveloped region facing malnutrition and poverty. The economy is largely agricultural driven, with cotton being the main cash crop. However, frequent droughts have been the curse of the region. Lack of job opportunities and lack of water for agriculture is leading to migration of the youths for livelihood and is a major concern of the region.
Can Congress repeat the Lok Sabha performance?
In the run-up to Lok Sabha elections, the Congress has succeeded in forming a rainbow coalition of different social and caste groups in the region including the Dalits-Marathas-Muslims and Kunbi, an OBC community. While Congress is the natural choice of Muslims, comprising about 8 per cent population of the region, Marathas were angry with the ruling Mahayuti for failing to provide them the OBC status and reservation. The Dalits favoured the Congress-led alliance because they were anxious about BJP changing the constitution or scrapping their reservation in jobs if they crossed 400 seats or the mandatory two-third seats required to amend the constitution. Anti-incumbency and farmers distress also played a big part in below par performance of the Mahayuti.
Meanwhile, the BJP has been cautious after the Lok Sabha results and taken slew of measures to salvage the situation in assembly elections. The Mahayuti government has recently introduced the Ladki Bahin Yojana, giving an allowance of Rs 1500 per month to the poor girl/women of the state. Besides giving constitutional status to the SC Commission, the Maharashtra government has also raised the OBC creamy layer cap to help mitigate discontent among them. However, is it enough? Or will Rahul Gandhi be able to once again breach the Vidarbha fort?
(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone. The opinions and facts in this article do not represent the stand of News9.)
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