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Is it possible that Indian American voters may throw up a ‘Hail Mary’ and ensure touchdown for either Donald Trump (a Republican) or Kamala Harris (a Democrat)? The way they have voted in previous elections, it is clear that the Democratic party is a clear favourite among Asians but the votes seem to be shifting towards Trump this year. If not a victory for the Republican nominee, the Asian vote switch will definitely ensure a close call for Harris! Why this swing?
Real-time updates on the 2024 US Presidential Election and candidate insights.
New Delhi: If you are an avid follower of American football, you would know that it is possible for anyone to throw up a ‘Hail Mary’ to ensure touchdown at the very end. Whether it will be the ‘swing states’ that will do the honour or if it is going to be the Indian American voters who will have the final word will be known to us shortly but the one question weighing on everyone’s minds is this – why did the Asians, in particular Indians born in America, move away from the Democrats and inch closer to a Republican candidate? If President Joe Biden got the maximum support from this one community, why would his predecessor and Vice President Kamala Harris have to struggle to seal the deal in this elections? Political activists say it is this one (large) community that will decide which candidate will pip the other to be POTUS.
While the race heats up to the Election Day, here’s a look at what many surveys have said and why the Indian community in the US matters so much for the elections. The latest demography points towards more than 5.2 million people of Indian origin currently (and permanently) residing in the United States. This is now the second-largest immigrant group and Indian Americans have quickly emerged as an important political factor because of their active involvement in local politics and the diaspora’s professional success.
What the surveys say about Indian American voters
If one talks about the mood of the community, it is as divided as the surveys make them out to be. According to many media reports, the Indian diaspora is expressing “divided views”, quite a few of them have come out openly supporting Donald Trump, others stick to a more conventional choice of Kamala Harris. They are attracted equally towards Trump’s economic and immigration policies as also with Harris’ leadership style.
Such is the importance of the Indian diaspora in the US that the country has come up with a special survey just to document their political choices. This is what gave birth to the Indian American Attitudes Survey (IAAS) in 2020 and has been going strong since then.
The IAAS is back in action as America votes in 24 hours. It has thrown up surprising analytics capturing the mood of the Indian diaspora for the 2024 verdict. According to an analysis based on the second round of the IAAS (conducted between September 18-October 15), which surveyed 714 Indian American citizens, the community still remains solidly behind the Democratic Party, but there is a modest uptick for Republican candidate Donald Trump too. With the elections becoming a live wire, former president Trump will take any small advantage coming his way. The uptick translates to one in three survey respondents intending to vote for Trump. In a swing state like Pennsylvania, this would mean a decent margin.
This drift is mostly driven by Indian American men, particularly those born in the United States. Although it is clear that they have favourable views of the Democratic ideology, the Indian diaspora doesn’t wish to vote for personalities alone. Their voting behaviour is mostly shaped by the parties political platform. In that sense, Republicans hold a bit of an advantage.
… numerically speaking
Strictly going by Mood (or attitude surveys), the Indian demographic has made their intent clear. They do show a clear leaning towards the Democrats but they are also willing to give the former president a chance.
Here’s how the numbers stack up according to the Carnegie report.
- 47% respondents identify as Democrats, down from 56% in 2020. A decline of around 9%
- 6 in 10 Indian American voters say they will vote for Harris.
- 61% registered Indian diaspora respondents intend to vote for Harris, 32% to vote for Trump.
- 67% women from this community will vote for a fellow-woman candidate, Kamala Harris.
- 53% men intend to vote for Harris.
- 22% women intend to vote for Trump.
- 39% men plan to cast their ballots for Trump.
- Abortion and reproductive rights are emerging as a priority issue for Indian Americans. It ranks as their second-most-important policy concern. This comes after inflation/prices and tied with the economy and jobs.
Is Indian diaspora the fringe-sitters?
The importance of this demography in choosing the ideal candidate as POTUS cannot be questioned. However, many analysts have tried to deep dive on what has really turned the young male voters of Indian origin to support Trump in the elections. The Democrats’ ideology resonates finely with women, especially motivated by abortion this election cycle. But apart from these issues, there is little faith on Harris’ foreign policy concerning India and the rest of the world and the fact that she has little political prowess to assume the role of POTUS, considered by many to be the highest seat of power.
This could be the reason why Asians as a whole are not very comfortable with the idea of opting for the unconventional Harris over the known devil, Donald Trump. It is a fact that Indian Americans do hold a slighted view of many Republican leaders, starting from their leader, Trump but the 2024 attitude survey reveals that the disadvantage stretches far beyond personalities. According to those who have sworn to never vote for the Republicans, their main grouse is that the Party is completely out of sync with many policy positions held by members of the community. They also do not adhere to the latter’s intolerance of minorities, its stance on abortion, and ties to Christian evangelicalism over and above.
It is clear that Indian Americans will have a say in the results of the elections but will they hold on to their Democratic perspective or opt for the rather unconventional Trump? Whatever they choose, it will not be a swing and a miss!
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