EAM Jaishankar says terrorism, trade don’t mix; why unstable Pak needs India for biz | Opinion Analysis News

Opinion Analysis News

India’s stance on cross-border terrorism has always been a forthright one. We have condemned such acts from every rampart that we have attended, and will continue to do so. When EAM S Jaishankar spoke of trade ties with Islamabad and mentioned the three evils responsible for the terse situation that prevails today, he was only reiterating India’s position. This is bad news for Islamabad, which desperately needs New Delhi for it’s staggering economy to stabilise whereas we can afford to keep Pak at bay!

New Delhi: The SCO meet held in Pakistan has garnered quite a bit of noise around the world, mostly conjectures whether India will engage in a bilateral talk with Pakistan on trade, economy and inter-personal ties or will New Delhi give it a cold shoulder. Islamabad, on their part, have made it known that the prerogative for a bilateral chat along side the SCO Meet can be only requested for by the guest country and not made a proposal by the host. Although, it is no secret that Pakistan would want the talks to resume with India as they depend on the latter for most of their trade and commerce. A fact well known and documented by India as well. But we have been clear about the ‘no talk yet’ stance with neighbours Pakistan.

Yesterday was all about dinner and Bharatnatyam, but India’s external affairs minister has addressed other concerns today. In his address at the meet, Dr S Jaishankar maintained (without directly naming Pakistan or its allies) that terrorism and trade cannot gel. “It is axiomatic that development and growth requires peace and stability. As the Charter spelt out, this means being firm and uncompromising in countering the ‘three evils’. If activities across borders are characterized by terrorism, extremism and separatism, they are hardly likely to encourage trade, energy flows, connectivity and people-to-people exchanges in parallel,” EAM said in Islamabad at the 23rd Meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Council of Heads of Government.

He pressed upon challenges of terrorism, extremism, and separatism, going on to describe the trio as the “three evils”. Jaishankar also let it be known that these factors can be considered a hindrance to “trade, travel, and people-to-people relations.” The statement will not resonate well with his Pakistan counterpart who was hoping for a friendly bilateral discussion on how to proceed with trade ties between Islamabad and New Delhi.

A move that Pakistan would want ever so desolately.

What led to the “non-existence” of trade ties

It is not just our geopolitical location and growing importance as a dynamic political influencer in the global south that makes New Delhi relevant to Islamabad. There are historic reasons for this dependence and Pakistan is well aware of it. Earlier this year, Pakistani Finance Minister Ishaq Dar had set a narrative that his country’s new government would aim at “seriously looking into matters of trade with India” – a statement that signified both interest as well as desperation on the part of Pakistan to resume trade ties with India.

A resumption of such ties would put Pakistan in a spot as they had cut off economic ties when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government withdrew Kashmir’s special constitutional status in 2019. Since then, leaders from Islamabad have insisted that they weren’t keen on restoring relations until this very decision was reversed. In 2019, Dar had even gone to the extent to say that the onus of the revival was now on New Delhi. In various announcements that he made to his countrymen, Dar emphasised on the need to sever ties with India completely. “trade between Islamabad and New Delhi have remained suspended since 2019 due to the imposition of “heavy duties” by India on imports from Pakistan after the Pulwama attack.”

India, however, has been maintaining that it desires normal neighbourly relations with Pakistan first while insisting that “the onus is on Islamabad to create an environment that is free of terror and hostility for such an engagement.” We stand firmly on this statement even five years down the line, as has been seen at the ongoing SCO meet.

Islamabad needs New Delhi, not vice versa

There are many reasons why Pakistan may have altered (and softened) their stance on non resumption of trade with India. Pakistan’s economic condition is extremely destitute at the moment with a debt running into 62.88 trillion, which is 74.3 per cent of their total GDP. The country’s GDP is at 2.3 per cent taking them to number 24 in terms of healthy economy worldwide. Their total loans from IMF amounts to a massive $7 billion.

The way things are today, Pakistan’s economy is staggering and the country is living on handouts. They have managed to secure the last of a $3 billion bailout from the IMF but that’s not going to cut it. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had even hinted that much more money would soon be needed without which restoring stability would be a distant dream.

It is clear that Islamabad needs New Delhi more than the latter would. India’s economy is ten-times that the size of Pakistan’s. Pakistan’s per capita income was much higher in 1970s but today India’s is 50 per cent higher than our neighours.

There is no denying that Pakistan would do with a robust economic revival and who better than India to provide them with that. The World Bank, had in 2018 estimated that Pakistan’s exports could see an increase by 80 per cent which converts to about $25 billion if trade with India reached its potential.

But, will India comply

While maintaining a strict policy and not coochy-ccoing with a state that sponsors terrorists is a sound political, ethical and moral standpoint. India will be wary of diplomatic fall-out of this situation as well. Trade and commerce is no longer just about profits, it is more a political strategy than anything else. For New Delhi, it may also be wise to view the resumption of trade ties as a means of strengthening Pakistan that desires stability, this would go a long way in helping the nation wean-off from its dependence on China.

The other thing that trade ties will do is to keep Pakistan focused on commerce and growth, instead of delving into the pits of extremism and militancy.

A strong stance against terrorism and states that sponsor such extremism is the right way forward but if Islamabad is willing to step down, India may think of meeting it halfway. Whether it is the right time for this crossing of paths, the onus should rightfully rest with New Delhi alone. We will be ready, when we will be ready.

 

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